The qualitative analysis in Section 126.96.36.199 highlighted several model choices and assumptions that have a high potential impact on the predictions, such as the connection status of the river stream network, the representation of the Cenozoic cover and Quaternary alluvial sediments, and the implementation of the . These assumptions are all driven by limited data availability.
A comprehensive assessment of the connection status of the stream network in the will allow for the nuanced assumption that all but the Belyando River are maximally losing streams, and the implementation in numerical models. These assumptions imply that there is potential for a change in streamflow anywhere where a non-negative is simulated in the . Whether or not this drawdown will manifest itself as a change in streamflow will depend on local conditions, including the connection status of the stream.
The geological model developed and presented in companion product 2.1-2.2 for the Galilee subregion () provides a solid basis for the representation of the regional geology. Adding local detail on the Cenozoic cover sediments and the position and extent of coal seams in the upper Permian coal measures will not only allow for the making of more robust and accurate predictions of the hydrological change in the Cenozoic cover, but it will allow independent estimates of mine pumping rates, as for example has been done in .
Further investment in the development of the Galilee Basin hydrogeological (GBH) numerical model presented in such as improving numerical stability, and integration of such a model in a probabilistic framework, such as is outlined, for example, in companion submethodology M09 (as listed in Table 1) for propagating uncertainty through models (), will allow for the making of more robust predictions, and formally test the effect of the technical limitations in the , such as the layer geometry and spatially varying properties.
The analysis indicated that the hydraulic properties of the upper Permian coal measures and the Cenozoic cover are the most influential parameters to estimate maximum drawdown and year of maximum change. indicated that the current observation is not well suited to constrain these parameters. The predictive uncertainty has the most potential to be reduced by gathering additional information on both the upper Permian coal measures and the Cenozoic cover. This includes both observations of the hydraulic parameters, the conductivity and storage, and observations of the state variables such as fluxes and levels.
Further discussion of some other gaps, limitations and opportunities identified from the wider body of work undertaken for this is provided in Section 3.7.4 of companion product 3-4 () for the Galilee subregion.
Product Finalisation date
- 188.8.131.52 Methods
- 184.108.40.206 Review of existing models
- 220.127.116.11.1 Alpha and Kevin's Corner model review
- 18.104.22.168.2 Carmichael model review
- 22.214.171.124.3 China First model review
- 126.96.36.199.4 China Stone model review
- 188.8.131.52.5 South Galilee model review
- 184.108.40.206.6 Galilee Basin hydrogeological model review
- 220.127.116.11.7 Suitability of existing groundwater models
- 18.104.22.168 Model development
- 22.214.171.124 Boundary and initial conditions
- 126.96.36.199 Implementation of the coal resource development pathway
- 188.8.131.52 Parameterisation
- 184.108.40.206 Observations and predictions
- 220.127.116.11 Uncertainty analysis
- 18.104.22.168 Limitations and conclusions
- Currency of scientific results
- Contributors to the Technical Programme
- About this technical product