The formal uncertainty analysis generates predictive distributions of drawdown (dmax) – the maximum difference in drawdown between the coal resource development pathway (CRDP) and baseline, due to additional coal resource development – and year of maximum change (tmax) at the model nodes of the regional groundwater analytic element model (GW AEM). For the model nodes in the alluvium, the predicted dmax generally is less than 5 m and occurs in the second half of the simulation period. Beyond 20 km from the mine footprints, the probability of exceeding a drawdown of 0.2 m is small.
None of the model nodes associated with the Clematis Group have median drawdown in excess of 1 m. These drawdowns are linked to propagation of drawdown through the Cenozoic cover rather than propagation of drawdown through the Rewan Group.
Although drawdowns predicted in the upper Permian coal measures decrease rapidly with increasing distance to the mine footprints, dmax is generally in excess of 5 m throughout the model domain.
The discussion of model assumptions and their effect on predictions highlighted that the assumptions with the highest potential to affect predictions are the implementation of the CRDP, the representation of the Cenozoic and alluvial sediments and the conceptualisation of the surface water – groundwater interaction. The predictions of drawdown are considered conservative; more local hydrogeological information is required to make more precise predictions.
Product Finalisation date
- 18.104.22.168 Methods
- 22.214.171.124 Review of existing models
- 126.96.36.199.1 Alpha and Kevin's Corner model review
- 188.8.131.52.2 Carmichael model review
- 184.108.40.206.3 China First model review
- 220.127.116.11.4 China Stone model review
- 18.104.22.168.5 South Galilee model review
- 22.214.171.124.6 Galilee Basin hydrogeological model review
- 126.96.36.199.7 Suitability of existing groundwater models
- 188.8.131.52 Model development
- 184.108.40.206 Boundary and initial conditions
- 220.127.116.11 Implementation of the coal resource development pathway
- 18.104.22.168 Parameterisation
- 22.214.171.124 Observations and predictions
- 126.96.36.199 Uncertainty analysis
- 188.8.131.52 Limitations and conclusions
- Currency of scientific results
- Contributors to the Technical Programme
- About this technical product