Modelling limitations

The qualitative uncertainty analysis in Section lists the major assumptions and model choices that form the basis of the probabilistic assessment of the impact of coal resource development on model nodes related to groundwater in the Clarence-Moreton bioregion. Within the context of the goal of the Bioregional Assessment Programme, the Assessment team deemed these assumptions valid and acceptable. There is no guarantee, however, that these assumptions will hold or be acceptable to address any other water management questions in the region.

The Assessment team therefore cannot recommend to use these models for any other purpose than the evaluation of change caused by CSG extraction without a formal re-evaluation of the suitability of the conceptual model and model assumptions, in line with the Australian groundwater modelling guidelines (Barnett et al., 2012).

Input data, model files (including the pre- and post-processing scripts and executables) and results are available at www.bioregionalassessments.gov.au. It is recommended, however, to contact bioregionalassessments@bom.gov.au for detailed information on the groundwater models.

The model is designed within a probabilistic framework. This implies there is not a single parameter combination that provides a ‘best fit’ to observations and a corresponding single set of predictions. The uncertainty analysis does, however, guarantee that the parameter combinations in the posterior parameter distributions honour the observations and general understanding of the groundwater dynamics of the system, within predefined acceptable limits. Any evaluation or further use of both the parameter combinations used in the models or the predictions, need to take into account the full posterior distributions reported in Section and Section, or at least a suitable set of moments that describe these distributions.

Subsidence and contaminant transport are beyond the scope of the current stage of the bioregional assessment. Subsidence due to additional coal resource development and solute transport were not simulated as part of the groundwater MODFLOW model.

Last updated:
23 October 2018
Thumbnail images of the Clarence-Moreton bioregion

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