The of the changes to streamflow characteristics described in this product on and are considered in companion product 3-4 for the Hunter subregion (as listed in Table 2). In order to rule out water-dependent landscape classes and assets that are unlikely to be impacted by changes in hydrology, it is necessary to define the magnitude of change in hydrology below which reaches of the stream network are assumed to experience no significant hydrological change due to the . A threshold has been defined conservatively for each of the nine in Section 8.1.4 of . For:
- the flux-based hydrological response variables , and , this is a 5% or greater chance of a 1% or greater change in the variable (i.e. if at least 5% of model replicates show a maximum difference between the and of at least 1% of the baseline value)
- the flux-based hydrological response variable , this is a 5% or greater chance of a 1% or greater change in the variable and the change in depth is greater than 0.0002 mm. Note that the addition of a runoff depth threshold is a departure from and is designed to exclude reaches where the absolute change in runoff is negligible.
- the frequency-based metrics , , and , this is a greater than 5% chance of there being a change in the variable of at least 3 days in any year
- the frequency-based metric , this is a greater than 5% chance of there being a change in the variable of at least two spells in any year.
If results from the surface water modelling indicate that for all nine variables at a there is a less than a 5% probability the hydrological changes will exceed the thresholds, then landscape classes and that depend on streamflow at that location are very unlikely to be impacted due to the additional coal resource development.
Streams, predicted to experience changes that exceed these thresholds, will not necessarily be adversely impacted by these changes. Rather they are retained in the group of ‘potentially impacted’ streams for which more local information and analysis are needed to assess the implications of the changes on ecological, economic and sociocultural values. Thus these thresholds form the basis for defining the zone of potential hydrological change (see companion product 3-4), within which the potential for cannot be ruled out.
Table 11 summarises for each surface water modelling node in the Hunter subregion whether the hydrological change due to the additional coal resource development exceeds the threshold for each hydrological response variable. At nodes 2–5, 15, 19, 23–24, 33–34, 39, 57–63, there are no significant hydrological changes due to the additional coal resource development; at nodes 7–9, 11, 26–27, 29, 35, 52 and 55, changes in all nine hydrological response variables exceed their respective thresholds; at all other nodes, there are above-threshold changes in some hydrological response variables, but not others. The last row in Table 11 gives the number of nodes for which the hydrological response variable was modelled to exceed its specified threshold. The majority of nodes (46) experience changes in three of the low-streamflow hydrological response variables (LFD, LFS and LLFS) and in the IQR hydrological response variable (43); less than a third exceed the specified threshold for the ZFD hydrological response variable; about half (33) exceed the specified threshold for AF.
Table 11 Change in hydrological response variable (column) relative to its threshold at each model node (row) due to additional coal resource development
ET = exceeds threshold; – indicates not significant (see and start of this section for definitions)
In Section 18.104.22.168.5 of companion product 2.1-2.2 for the Hunter subregion (), the node to link mapping for the modelled Hunter River and Wyong River networks is defined. This mapping informs the extrapolation of results from model nodes to some length of reach upstream and downstream of the node, as appropriate to do so. The information in Table 11 and the node-link mapping in Section 2.1.4 of have been used to identify the reaches of the Hunter blue line river network () that have modelled hydrological changes from additional coal resource development. Figure 28 shows reaches predicted to experience a change in at least one hydrological response variable above its specified threshold due to additional coal resource development.
For some reaches (e.g. node 18 to node 19; node 55 to node 59), the change from an above threshold hydrological change to a non-significant hydrological change occurs somewhere between the two nodes. These reaches are shown as dashed pink lines and other information is needed to determine where to delineate the point of change. Similarly, upstream of the pink headwater model nodes in Figure 28 (i.e. those showing with a change exceeding a specified hydrological threshold), there will be some length of stream that is also potentially affected by the additional coal resource development. To define the zone of potential hydrological change for the impact and risk analysis – that is, the area outside of which it is very unlikely that landscape classes and assets will be impacted – we need to determine the upstream extents of the stream network likely to experience a hydrological change exceeding at least one specified threshold. This final step is reported in companion product 3-4 (impact and risk analysis) for the Hunter subregion (as listed in Table 2), where results from the modelling and mine footprint data are used to identify stream reaches that are not explicit in the surface water model node-link network and where hydrological changes from additional coal resource development could impact water-dependent landscapes and assets.
What these potential changes in hydrology from additional coal resource development might mean for Hunter subregion landscape classes and assets are covered in companion products 2.7 (receptor impact modelling) and 3-4 (impact and risk analysis) for the Hunter subregion (as listed in Table 2).
ACRD = additional coal resource development; AWRA-R = Australian Water Resources Assessment river model
Product Finalisation date
- 22.214.171.124 Methods
- 126.96.36.199 Review of existing models
- 188.8.131.52 Model development
- 184.108.40.206.1 Spatial and temporal dimensions
- 220.127.116.11.2 Location of model nodes
- 18.104.22.168.3 Choice of seasonal scaling factors for climate trend
- 22.214.171.124.4 Representing the hydrological changes from mining
- 126.96.36.199.5 Modelling river management
- 188.8.131.52.6 Rules to simulate industry water discharge
- 184.108.40.206 Calibration
- 220.127.116.11 Uncertainty
- 18.104.22.168 Prediction
- Currency of scientific results
- Contributors to the Technical Programme
- About this technical product