Daily streamflow at the 1st percentile (P01)

Figure 14 indicates that the median change in P01 will be less than 0.02 ML/day. These changes are very close to the threshold of 0.01 ML/day, below which simulated flow is considered zero in the calculation of ZFD.

In CLM_003 and CLM_008, the section of the Richmond River downstream of the confluence with Eden Creek, the 95th percentile of change can be as high as 0.13 ML/day. In the Richmond River and Shannon Brook, the relative change is up to 80% (95th percentile in CLM_008). The 90th percentile prediction intervals do however indicate that P01 will not decrease by 100% at any of the simulation nodes; that is, under coal resource development pathway (CRDP) conditions P01 will be non-zero at all simulation nodes.

The maximum changes in low flow are simulated to occur in the second half of the simulation period.

Figure 14

Figure 14 Predictive distribution of (a) maximum raw change (amax), (b) maximum percent change (pmax) and (c) year of maximum change (tmax) for daily streamflow at the 1st percentile (P01)

d/s = downstream of; u/s = upstream of

The circle indicates the median of the posterior predictive distribution, the length of the thick vertical line spans the interquartile range (or 50th percentile prediction interval), and the thin vertical line spans the 90th percentile prediction interval. Nodes are grouped per catchment, ordered from upstream to downstream.

Data: Bioregional Assessment Programme (Dataset 2)

Last updated:
18 October 2018
Thumbnail images of the Clarence-Moreton bioregion

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