The change in surface hydrology predicted due to the in absolute terms is predicted to have a median decrease of less than 0.01 GL/y, which corresponds to a change of about 0.01%. These changes are several orders of magnitude smaller than the observed mean streamflow (Table 26, Section 188.8.131.52 of companion product 2.1-2.2 for the ). Their effect on mean and high-flow will therefore be minimal. Even the effect on low-flow hydrological response variables will be very small, especially in the perennial streams.
In addition to this, such low changes in flow are extremely hard to observe as the largest uncertainties in the rating curves used to transfer measured stage heights to flows are associated with low-flow measurements .
The simulated increases in low-flow metrics are considered to be an erroneous overestimate due to artefacts in the simulation of low flow and the definition of the hydrological response variables. Accurately measuring and simulating low-flow conditions is very challenging and requires further efforts.
Product Finalisation date
- 184.108.40.206 Methods
- 220.127.116.11 Review of existing models
- 18.104.22.168 Model development
- 22.214.171.124 Calibration
- 126.96.36.199 Uncertainty
- 188.8.131.52 Prediction
- 184.108.40.206.1 Annual flow (AF)
- 220.127.116.11.2 Interquartile range (IQR)
- 18.104.22.168.3 Daily streamflow at the 99th percentile (P99)
- 22.214.171.124.4 Flood (high-flow) days (FD)
- 126.96.36.199.5 Daily streamflow at the 1st percentile (P01)
- 188.8.131.52.6 Low-flow days (LFD)
- 184.108.40.206.7 Low-flow spells (LFS)
- 220.127.116.11.8 Longest low-flow spell (LLFS)
- 18.104.22.168.9 Zero-flow days (ZFD)
- 22.214.171.124.10 Summary and conclusions
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- About this technical product