This product presents information about the impact and risk analysis for the Namoi subregion and is the key output of the BAs. The structure is as follows:
- Section 3.1 describes the scope of the BA conducted for the Namoi subregion and provides context to the critical philosophical and operational choices.
- Section 3.2 describes the methods for assessing impacts and risks in the Namoi subregion that are additional to those in the receptor impact modelling (companion product 2.7 for the Namoi subregion (Ickowicz et al., 2018)). It includes details of the databases, tools and geoprocessing that support the impact and risk analysis, and the approach to aggregating potential impacts to landscape classes and assets. The approach is consistent with that outlined in the companion submethodology M10 (as listed in Table 1) for the analysis of risk and cumulative impacts (Henderson et al., 2018).
- Section 3.3 provides a closer look at the spatial extent of hydrological changes within the zone of potential hydrological change, using a subset of the hydrological response variables defined in companion submethodology M06 (as listed in Table 1) for surface water modelling (Viney, 2016). The reported surface water hydrological response variables represent changes in low flows, high flows and annual flow due to additional coal resource development. While not explicitly modelled, the potential for additional coal resource development to impact water quality is reported in this section.
- Section 3.4 considers the impacts on and risks to landscape classes within the zone of potential hydrologic change due to additional coal resource development. An aggregated, system-level analysis of potential impacts is possible at the scale of the landscape class. A ‘rule-out’ process identifies landscape classes that are very unlikely to be impacted due to hydrological changes. The impacts on and risks to landscape classes are assessed either quantitatively using the receptor impact models described in companion product 2.7 for the Namoi subregion (Ickowicz et al., 2018) or more qualitatively using the qualitative mathematical models developed through expert elicitation (Ickowicz et al., 2018). Potential hydrological changes for those landscape classes focus on those identified as important through the expert elicitation.
- Section 3.5 considers the risk and impacts due to additional coal resource development at the asset level. The focus is on those water-dependent assets in the asset register for the Namoi subregion (Bioregional Assessment Programme, 2017, Dataset 1; companion product 1.3 for the Namoi subregion (O’Grady et al., 2015)) that are in the zone of potential hydrological change. The analysis is predominantly at the asset group level, rather than for each individual asset. It includes ecological, economic and sociocultural assets.
- Section 3.6 assesses the potential hydrological changes and impacts on landscape classes and assets from the additional coal resource developments that were not modelled.
- Section 3.7 concludes with key findings and knowledge gaps, including commentary on how to validate and build on this assessment in the future.
Companion product 2.7 for the Namoi subregion (Ickowicz et al., 2018) summarises the overarching methodology and development of the Namoi subregion qualitative mathematical models and receptor impact models used to make predictions about the potential impacts on ecosystems reported in Section 3.4. As such, it serves as an appendix to this product.
6 December 2018
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Product Finalisation date
- 3.1 Overview
- 3.2 Methods
- 3.3 Potential hydrological changes
- 3.4 Impacts on and risks to landscape classes
- 3.4.1 Overview
- 3.4.2 Landscape classes that are unlikely to be impacted
- 3.4.3 'Floodplain or lowland riverine' (non-Pilliga) landscape group
- 3.4.4 'Non-floodplain or upland riverine' (non-Pilliga) landscape group
- 3.4.5 Pilliga riverine (upland and lowland)
- 3.4.6 Potentially impacted landscape classes lacking quantitative ecological modelling
- 3.5 Impacts on and risks to water-dependent assets
- 3.6 Commentary for coal resource developments that are not modelled
- 3.7 Conclusion
- Contributors to the Technical Programme
- About this technical product