Figure 14 indicates that the median change in P01 will be less than 0.02 ML/day. These changes are very close to the threshold of 0.01 ML/day, below which simulated flow is considered zero in the calculation of ZFD.
In CLM_003 and CLM_008, the section of the Richmond River downstream of the confluence with Eden Creek, the 95th percentile of change can be as high as 0.13 ML/day. In the Richmond River and Shannon Brook, the relative change is up to 80% (95th percentile in CLM_008). The 90th percentile prediction intervals do however indicate that P01 will not decrease by 100% at any of the simulation nodes; that is, under (CRDP) conditions P01 will be non-zero at all simulation nodes.
The maximum changes in low flow are simulated to occur in the second half of the simulation period.
d/s = downstream of; u/s = upstream of
The circle indicates the median of the posterior predictive distribution, the length of the thick vertical line spans the interquartile range (or 50th percentile prediction interval), and the thin vertical line spans the 90th percentile prediction interval. Nodes are grouped per catchment, ordered from upstream to downstream.
Product Finalisation date
- 126.96.36.199 Methods
- 188.8.131.52 Review of existing models
- 184.108.40.206 Model development
- 220.127.116.11 Calibration
- 18.104.22.168 Uncertainty
- 22.214.171.124 Prediction
- 126.96.36.199.1 Annual flow (AF)
- 188.8.131.52.2 Interquartile range (IQR)
- 184.108.40.206.3 Daily streamflow at the 99th percentile (P99)
- 220.127.116.11.4 Flood (high-flow) days (FD)
- 18.104.22.168.5 Daily streamflow at the 1st percentile (P01)
- 22.214.171.124.6 Low-flow days (LFD)
- 126.96.36.199.7 Low-flow spells (LFS)
- 188.8.131.52.8 Longest low-flow spell (LLFS)
- 184.108.40.206.9 Zero-flow days (ZFD)
- 220.127.116.11.10 Summary and conclusions
- Contributors to the Technical Programme
- About this technical product