2.7.7.1 Prediction of receptor impact variables

The receptor impact modelling workflow applied in the bioregional assessment (BA) of the Galilee subregion is summarised in Figure 3 in Section 2.7.1.2, starting from the identification of the landscape classes within the zone of potential hydrological change that may be impacted, through to the prediction of receptor impact variables at assessment units. This product then presents the construction and interpretation of the qualitative mathematical models and receptor impact models developed for four landscape groups, and the relationship between the receptor impact variable and one or more hydrological response variables used in the modelling. While this approach allows some assessment of the sensitivity of the response to the hydrological response variables, it needs to be stressed that these should not be interpreted as risk predictions. Importantly, the prediction of receptor impact variables at assessment units occurs in companion product 3-4 for the Galilee subregion (Lewis et al., 2018), where the hydrological response variables are propagated through the receptor impact models to produce a range (or distribution) of the predicted receptor impact variable response at different time points and for the two futures considered in BA. These distributions reflect the uncertainty in the hydrological response variables, the uncertainty the experts have in the potential ecosystem response to those hydrological response variables, and the spatial heterogeneity across the landscape group.