- Bioregional Assessment Program
- Propagating uncertainty through models
- 5 Outputs from the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis
Product 2.6.1 (surface water numerical modelling) and Product 2.6.2 (groundwater numerical modelling) reports the potential impacts of coal resource development on water resources at the selected model nodes within the surface water and groundwater model domains respectively. This is done by comparing model simulations that account for the coal resource development pathway (CRDP) with those that only consider the baseline. A critical part of both of these products is the representation of the uncertainty in numerical model predictions. This is achieved in various ways, including by demonstrating the distribution of model outputs (i.e. hydrological response variables) at specific model nodes or illustrating the probability of exceeding certain drawdown thresholds.
Examples are not presented as part of this submethodology but the reader is referred to submethodology M06 (as listed in Table 1) for surface water modelling (Viney, 2016) and submethodology M07 (as listed in Table 1) for groundwater modelling (Crosbie et al., 2016) which contain specific examples of uncertainty outputs for product 2.6.1 (surface water numerical modelling) and Product 2.6.2 (groundwater numerical modelling).