2.5.1.2 Water balance uncertainty

The water balance terms summarised here are a different set of model outputs to the hydrological response variables generated at receptor locations, which were reported in companion product 2.6.1 (Zhang et al., 2018) and companion product 2.6.2 (Peeters et al., 2018) for the Gloucester subregion. To estimate the uncertainty of the water balance terms, the posterior parameter distributions for the model chain (Section 2.6.2.8 and Section 2.6.1.6) are sampled a limited number of times to calculate the water balance components. For this product, 30 unique parameter combinations were randomly selected from the subset of the 10,000 parameter combinations that had acceptable values of the objective function. While this small number of samples will not provide the rigorous uncertainty analysis presented in companion product 2.6.1 (Zhang et al., 2018) and companion product 2.6.2 (Peeters et al., 2018) for the Gloucester subregion, they will provide a credible estimate of the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the water balance components.

Last updated:
16 October 2018